As commentators opined that China would remain a foreign car market for the foreseeable future, I felt that China would have a plan to develop local capability and then a global footprint. I felt its long term position would be based upon alternative energy cars, because China could focus nationally on the r and d that would be required.
It appears that just as the China import market reaches saturation so its development of the electric car moves towards economies of scale, which enable the re-energising that is key to alternative energy vehicles.
But China’s moves into global manufacturing, through brands such as Volvo, also begin to show signs of success.
We may be moving towards the third decade of this century and the emergence of China as a transport heavyweight in high speed trains and all trains, vehicles and ships. China would become a new force in transport but would not become a controlling force.
As my father used to say – when you are number one there is only one way to go…
But the big new transport market is the New Silk Roads – first for high speed and freight trains, second for cars and trucks but also for shipping. It is the higways of the New Silk roads that might become the opportunity for well-planned alternative fuel vehicles. That would provide the base for global impact.