Post the two sessions and the next 6 months

The two sessions have ended and China’s leadership moves into a busy internal 6 months leading up to the top level interim changes in October. The internal financial aspects of the economy are addressed in the two pieces attached.

The internal economy continues to grow and develop towards a more sophisticated and shared destination for 2021. Innovation is prioritised which means China will challenge for technology leadership in the second half of the next decade.

China, through the Premier in a post Congress press conference, confirmed China’s view that American owned companies in China, exporting to the USA, would face harsher impacts than anyone from a USA launched trade war. China wants a deal with the USA, but not at any price, and the USA struggles between those who want to rebuild a debt contaminated USA economy and those who want to maintain global eminence. A hard year ahead.

The UK, leaving Europe, could find China a welcome new partner but for the moment the wooing has not started due to the demands of our internal political processes.

So 2017 could be a big year in Sino-UK relations if we seize the initiative to work, as Europe’s leader, with China in BRI and Africa.

It could be a quiet year if we become preoccupied with our own politics.

But for China another year of great change towards 2021, to build out BRI and beyond, and for its sector leaders to gear themselves up for a new era of automation, AI and sustainable influences, which could give China global leadership in sectors like vehicles.

China needs to manage its internal differences over the manner of regulation of the market economy and the gyrations of the private sector. But it should manage to deal with these.

An interesting 6 months ahead starting with a visit by President Xi to Trump’s estate in Florida.

Stephen

China Economics PBoC 16 March 2017

China Economics NPC 16 March 2017



Categories: Uncategorized

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