One World two Systems


It is worth reading what the Chinese are saying about SCO. Some wild analysis suggests either the collapse or slow decline of the West, or a crisis in the East.


Both are simplistic. It is not in the interests of either system for the other to collapse. They will both find their own development models and meet in ways yet to be defined.


The Bretton woods system needs to change as it represents only the dynamic of a small leadership in the West. There are problems within that system with debt, which limits growth and exposes risk. There is also risk as the USA changes its way of relating to the world – bilateral instead of multilateral – and with an apparent determination to reduce trade deficits that could lead to a reduction in the scale of the dollars reserve currency status. So the G7 or G8 needs to find its new feet over the next 2/3 years. How it interacts with the Eastern system may only unfold as a consequence of that.


But the SCO meeting suggests a growing economic force, which is already larger than G7. If it develops security and opening of trade and commerce then it will have a big impact on Asia and how Asia interacts with G7. While there may be strong words of warning about “international rules”, the reality is that those rules respond to realities and new realities are emerging. It is doubtful that conflict is an option for resolution of change. Although we may face that in the short term. Hopefully not military conflict.


So I am an optimist that all leading powers can only prosper if they trade and growth is in the East, and markets are in the West. At least for the next 10 years. So I think it behoves us in the west to understand how to be of assistance to the east and, thereby, achieve long term openings.




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