China and the USA

It is difficult to decipher the moves in this unfolding drama. It is being played against the background of a rising crisis in the direction of the global economy and national and international politics. This story is very interesting as it carries a written speech by Vice President Wang Qishan. That means it has been reviewed by him internally within the Party and will be pored over in political capitals around the world.


I have been waiting for this to appear as it gives us a clear impression of the Chinese analysis of the context of this major issue in world affairs.


The written analysis is interesting but it is the speech that is most interesting.


The USA wants to retain an existing order, whilst the world is transiting to a new order. That is a risky period whose outcomes in the near term are not certain.


Major world nations like Russia, Japan, India, Germany and a small number of others, will play an important part. They will all decide if they want to be part of a posse to slow China’s development. As China represents the main part of world growth any global move to slow China would both cause resentment from the Chinese people, and problems for other nations’ economies. The USA is a tough nation to negotiate with. So this next phase will not be straight forward or simple.


Political and business leaders will find it difficult to identify moments like this when a policy speech is delivered and not a spin speech.


I will continue to watch for such moments.





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