The World Economy

The setting of major countries economic and geopolitical policies are boundaried by their own ideological perspectives, and their own conditions, then influenced by global and regional forces and pressures.

 

Those concerned with these areas of global, regional and national policies and outlooks are foxed by the buzz words, propaganda and torrent of data and headlines.

 

I have always found Dr Gerard Lyons able to explain in simpler terms complex issues.

 

In this article carried by the Telegraph he succinctly contextualises much for the reader, and gives a sense of what central bankers and their political masters or partners are considering.

 

The politicians are very sensitive to stability and economic impacts, as well as geopolitical pressures and wishes. The central bankers have for many years followed a course focused on inflation, arising from past excesses of inflation which can undermine economies and political stability. But the focus on inflation meant that focus on false markets was missed, and growth then recovered in the West after 2008 due mainly to QE, then appears to falter again in very recent times.

 

Gerard takes us through the present situation and the outlook calmly and with clarity and with words in daily use. This is very helpful to the political stability which depends on realistic understandings in the intelligentsia in nations across the world.

 

Perhaps the world has been focused too much on inflation in recent times, when the determinants of human progress and stability arise also from other key aspects of economic realities.

 

Guiding the economy is like driving a car round a long bend. You can only succeed by keeping your eye on the bend ahead and not the road immediately in front of you. So fast changes to avert a slowdown may create new problems, but slow responses to holes in the road, which appear almost without warning, can cause a puncture.

 

We must remember that at the end of this process is resulting consequences which leads to jobs and earnings – the lifeblood of the people. So getting the balance right and avoiding sudden changes is so important. That creates a stable environment for business to grow and develop.

 

At the moment it is the US/China tariff war that is the most undermining factor.

 

It is the balance of policy in the light of reality that is key. Gerard always seems to pick out the salient points.

 

Hopefully the below with a press on the control button and a click will take you to the article. It may be you need to register with the Telegraph which has an excellent daily update. But the article is very timely and reminds us of the importance of the US policy towards China.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/10/emerging-economies-led-china-will-prevent-global-recession/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_As4lWlwyMzdW

 

Stephen

 

 

 



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