The article below is a scientific rebuttal of an impending problem. I find the logic overwhelming and draws attention to the problem for the President of the USA and other Western leaders to get good objective material on China.
I find so much of the material in the media in the West is written by people who are biased against China, because of politics, the single party state, human rights, liberal democracy or just simple racism.
The problem is the bias distorts the analysis. And the projections become badly distorted like this issue here.
China planned for this ration back more than 40 years ago. It was simply quite predicable.
As China does not seek permagrowth to find companies need for increasing profits, China can plan for an eventual level of nil growth.
So unless we know the Chinese projections on productivity it is hard to do a graph of growth needed . but it is about 6pc now and will be close to zero by 2049 I would guess.
The focus is also moving to increasing growth on BRI taking the world’s place of Chinese growth.
I would guess that China’s move towards a per capita of $30,000 with imported goods increasing as a share of total trade that the world is kind of secure through 2035 with an increasing share from BRI. I would think China and BRI should still exceed one third of total world growth.
So this paper is useful to sped read and then go back over as needs be