We are now deep into World War Three. A war without armies and military.
A war characterised by a vicious virus cutting across all nations and all peoples. It has no respect for money or power. China and others have led the way to manage it but the world will be as changed after this as it was after the first two world wars.
The fight against the virus will be tough as we go through this.
There may be some riots, even attempts to take what some have and what some need.
But the forces of law and order are prepared and generally will ensure the fight against the virus is won.
Maybe faster and deeper in some who get how to fight. But in the end everyone will need it managed and killed.
In the process the wild world of capitalism will settle to a fairer system of Responsible Capitalism. There are many euphemisms for it such as one nation Tory, but the best examples of it are in the Lutheran countries of Northern Europe. Capitalism has reformed from crude extraction of value by the few from the many in the 19th century, to a much fairer sharing based upon nations. The market economy lies at the heart of the capitalist economy and it has been refined and reformed to a productive economy for the benefit of all, not equally, but not unfairly. With a safe and healthy society and freedoms it is a fine later stage of capitalism.
Its forms in the USA and UK are still behind the curve and will adapt or fail.
The force of change is evident now as Tories take industrial seats in Parliament, and Sanders shows Socialist is not a dirty word any more.
But it is Xi who has led the way with a Chinese economy that manages capitalism and uses it to move towards socialism. It is evident increasingly as is their intention to avoid Empire, but not be acquiescent to Trump old style USA.
Socialism which manages capitalism is not a near term model for the West, will increasingly influence the developing world. There will be many false starts and even China may lose its way in decades to come.
But the two forms are inevitable now as a result of the failures since 2008 and the power of the virus.
We are in the throes of World War Three and a new world will emerge in unpredictable ways. The shipments of aid from China to Europe, from Jack Ma to the USA are evidence of the new ways of the world.
If we survive the epidemic or pandemic or not , one thing is for sure, the crossroads that Peter Nolan wrote so extensively about – his books are available on line – are now past. We are in the next stage of mankind towards a world where power is finally shifting.
It may be unpleasant in many ways. I am experiencing very painful responses. But I always write about today and do not know if I shall write again.
I am not a philosopher or an academic. I am a Professor and so comment on the world I have seen, and saw through my father’s eyes. I extract trends from what I have experienced and seen in commerce.
What I write here is my sense of what is happening. We are going through a dark tunnel, and it will get darker yet. But there is a light at the other end and we shall all change under its influence.
In 2008 Gordon Brown saw the need for change and a hybrid G20 was created. The new form for the new economies and societies and how they cooperate globally is yet to be revealed by the new leader, who are just thinking about the new world.
But I think the aftermath of this virus will be a Bretton Woods for the people of the world. Not through idealism or any other ism but because the world is too powerful now to be led by one nation or fought over.
Xi’s simple philosophy of A Community of a Shared Future will lead. Because it is simply the right answer.
Responsible Capitalism starts from growth and uses it to build a better, fairer and more moral economy and society. It shares more than previous capitalist models but does not encourage dependency or sloth. It cares. It works hard. It is not a million miles away from Chinese socialism but its history and core is different. The two are not contradictory. This is the brilliant philosophy of Xi. He saw that socialism and capitalism can coexist and that socialism is a development stage of capitalism. They blend inexorably. There has been a lot of estrangement as fear of change has predominated. And behind that self-interest and greed. Mrs Merkel knows how to manage the difference and change will be part of what emerges that learns from her ability to coexist.
I hope I can continue to write but who knows what controls are about to be put on us to manage our Virus.
See you soon
Ps if you think I am dubious just think who beat the virus – the Chinese. That is the terrible linguistic mistake of President Trump. Maybe one day China , in new leaderships, may try to boss the world. I doubt it as they know their fate will be obvious. There is only way from number one – down.
I have spent long long times in the USA and love that country and we must all help them make the transition the UK and others had to make. We need the power of the American economy and creativity. And the natural fun of the American people.
The next months and years may be tough but the direction is good.